Insights / kr
010950
S-OilKR04/21/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.00%
P05–P95 span
15.25%
Neighbors
19
Sharpness
0.69
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+1.13%
Outer 90%
6/10(60%)
Middle 50%
5/10(50%)
Above median
10/10(100%)
Below median
0/10(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.58%P25: -0.96%P50: 1.00%P75: 4.84%P95: 10.67%
Computed at: 04/21/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 18.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.