010120

LS ELECTRICKR05/19/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

Median move
+2.41%
P05–P95 span
15.68%
Neighbors
6
Sharpness
0.69
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-5.61%
Outer 90%
6/10(60%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
5/10(50%)
Below median
5/10(50%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Aggregated distribution (density strip)

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -2.50%P25: -0.77%P50: 2.41%P75: 6.51%P95: 13.18%

Computed at: 05/19/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 5.9 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.