Insights / kr
001040
CJKR06/08/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.54%
P05–P95 span
15.21%
Neighbors
10
Sharpness
0.70
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
5 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+5
+9.50%
Outer 90%
4/5(80%)
Middle 50%
2/5(40%)
Above median
5/5(100%)
Below median
0/5(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.49%P25: -1.69%P50: 0.54%P75: 2.81%P95: 10.72%
Computed at: 06/08/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 9.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.