Insights / kr
001040
CJKR06/07/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.67%
P05–P95 span
21.52%
Neighbors
9
Sharpness
0.57
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
6 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+6
+8.54%
Outer 90%
6/6(100%)
Middle 50%
2/6(33%)
Above median
5/6(83%)
Below median
1/6(17%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -12.43%P25: -7.38%P50: -0.67%P75: 1.15%P95: 9.09%
Computed at: 06/07/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 9.0 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.