Insights / kr
001040
CJKR04/20/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.69%
P05–P95 span
21.66%
Neighbors
10
Sharpness
0.57
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+2.59%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
5/10(50%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -13.23%P25: -2.08%P50: 0.69%P75: 4.09%P95: 8.43%
Computed at: 04/20/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 9.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.