Insights / kr
001040
CJKR04/19/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.65%
P05–P95 span
12.43%
Neighbors
6
Sharpness
0.75
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+0.23%
Outer 90%
8/10(80%)
Middle 50%
6/10(60%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.82%P25: -3.53%P50: -1.65%P75: 1.01%P95: 7.61%
Computed at: 04/19/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 5.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.