Insights / kr

000810

삼성화재KR06/03/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

← 2026-06-034 / 402026-06-09 →
Jump to latest →
Median move
-0.84%
P05–P95 span
28.31%
Neighbors
10
Sharpness
0.43
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
5 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+5
-2.07%
Outer 90%
4/5(80%)
Middle 50%
1/5(20%)
Above median
1/5(20%)
Below median
4/5(80%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Aggregated distribution (density strip)

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -11.07%P25: -3.53%P50: -0.84%P75: 2.00%P95: 17.24%

Computed at: 06/03/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 9.9 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.