000810

삼성화재KR06/01/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

Median move
+1.49%
P05–P95 span
23.69%
Neighbors
5
Sharpness
0.53
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
6 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+6
+5.41%
Outer 90%
5/6(83%)
Middle 50%
3/6(50%)
Above median
5/6(83%)
Below median
1/6(17%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Aggregated distribution (density strip)

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -5.97%P25: -0.51%P50: 1.49%P75: 10.07%P95: 17.72%

Computed at: 06/01/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 4.9 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.