000810

삼성화재KR05/21/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

Median move
-7.21%
P05–P95 span
14.21%
Neighbors
12
Sharpness
0.72
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+13.32%
Outer 90%
4/10(40%)
Middle 50%
0/10(0%)
Above median
10/10(100%)
Below median
0/10(0%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Aggregated distribution (density strip)

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -11.87%P25: -9.44%P50: -7.21%P75: -2.33%P95: 2.34%

Computed at: 05/21/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 11.8 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.