XYZ

Block, Inc.US05/12/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

Median move
-0.44%
P05–P95 span
16.60%
Neighbors
31
Sharpness
0.67
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+4.42%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
8/10(80%)
Above median
3/10(30%)
Below median
7/10(70%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Aggregated distribution (density strip)

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -8.71%P25: -2.88%P50: -0.44%P75: 2.70%P95: 7.89%

Computed at: 05/13/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 30.7 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.