Insights / us
XOM
Exxon Mobil CorporationUS06/03/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.37%
P05–P95 span
16.67%
Neighbors
22
Sharpness
0.67
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
5 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+5
-3.58%
Outer 90%
5/5(100%)
Middle 50%
1/5(20%)
Above median
0/5(0%)
Below median
5/5(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.31%P25: -0.55%P50: 1.37%P75: 3.89%P95: 10.36%
Computed at: 06/04/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 21.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.