Insights / us
XOM
Exxon Mobil CorporationUS05/06/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.10%
P05–P95 span
19.23%
Neighbors
33
Sharpness
0.62
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+6.50%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -10.39%P25: -1.88%P50: 0.10%P75: 2.27%P95: 8.84%
Computed at: 05/07/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 32.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.