Insights / us
XOM
Exxon Mobil CorporationUS04/13/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.50%
P05–P95 span
13.49%
Neighbors
15
Sharpness
0.73
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+0.33%
Outer 90%
8/10(80%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
1/10(10%)
Below median
9/10(90%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -1.59%P25: 0.08%P50: 1.50%P75: 3.87%P95: 11.90%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:46 AM · ESS 14.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.