Insights / us
WTW
Willis Towers Watson Public Limited CompanyUS05/18/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.91%
P05–P95 span
21.96%
Neighbors
29
Sharpness
0.56
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-2.56%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
7/10(70%)
Above median
0/10(0%)
Below median
10/10(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -8.21%P25: -1.80%P50: 0.91%P75: 4.49%P95: 13.74%
Computed at: 05/19/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 28.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.