Insights / us
WRB
W. R. Berkley CorporationUS05/25/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.45%
P05–P95 span
16.12%
Neighbors
36
Sharpness
0.68
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-0.33%
Outer 90%
6/10(60%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
1/10(10%)
Below median
9/10(90%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -8.64%P25: -1.51%P50: 0.45%P75: 2.88%P95: 7.48%
Computed at: 05/26/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 35.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.