Insights / us
WRB
W. R. Berkley CorporationUS05/13/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.30%
P05–P95 span
18.79%
Neighbors
33
Sharpness
0.62
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-3.41%
Outer 90%
8/10(80%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
7/10(70%)
Below median
3/10(30%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -9.78%P25: -2.70%P50: -0.30%P75: 1.59%P95: 9.02%
Computed at: 05/14/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 32.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.