Insights / us
WRB
W. R. Berkley CorporationUS04/12/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.81%
P05–P95 span
21.19%
Neighbors
36
Sharpness
0.58
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+0.81%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
10/10(100%)
Below median
0/10(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -18.19%P25: -6.37%P50: -1.81%P75: 0.55%P95: 3.00%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:46 AM · ESS 35.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.