Insights / us
VST
Vistra Corp.US06/02/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.17%
P05–P95 span
13.52%
Neighbors
24
Sharpness
0.73
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
6 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+6
-6.47%
Outer 90%
2/6(33%)
Middle 50%
0/6(0%)
Above median
0/6(0%)
Below median
6/6(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.57%P25: -0.13%P50: 1.17%P75: 3.39%P95: 6.95%
Computed at: 06/03/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 23.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.