Insights / us
VST
Vistra Corp.US05/31/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.46%
P05–P95 span
10.80%
Neighbors
23
Sharpness
0.78
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
8 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+8
-6.76%
Outer 90%
2/8(25%)
Middle 50%
1/8(13%)
Above median
1/8(13%)
Below median
7/8(88%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.08%P25: -2.35%P50: -0.46%P75: 1.49%P95: 3.73%
Computed at: 06/01/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 22.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.