Insights / us
VST
Vistra Corp.US05/21/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.98%
P05–P95 span
13.68%
Neighbors
30
Sharpness
0.73
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-2.73%
Outer 90%
6/10(60%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -8.97%P25: -4.02%P50: -0.98%P75: 1.61%P95: 4.71%
Computed at: 05/22/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 29.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.