Insights / us
VRSK
Verisk Analytics, Inc.US06/01/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.81%
P05–P95 span
17.27%
Neighbors
35
Sharpness
0.65
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
7 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+7
+0.80%
Outer 90%
6/7(86%)
Middle 50%
3/7(43%)
Above median
4/7(57%)
Below median
3/7(43%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.71%P25: -2.82%P50: -0.81%P75: 0.64%P95: 9.56%
Computed at: 06/02/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 34.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.