VRSK

Verisk Analytics, Inc.US05/21/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

Median move

-0.16%

P05–P95 span

19.48%

Neighbors

Sharpness

0.61

Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)

10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices

Realized @ D+10

+4.06%

Outer 90%

8/10(80%)

Middle 50%

2/10(20%)

Above median

10/10(100%)

Below median

0/10(0%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -14.63%P25: -1.90%P50: -0.16%P75: 1.37%P95: 4.86%

Computed at: 05/22/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 29.7 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.