Insights / us
VLO
Valero Energy CorporationUS06/03/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.30%
P05–P95 span
14.30%
Neighbors
36
Sharpness
0.71
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
5 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+5
-0.10%
Outer 90%
5/5(100%)
Middle 50%
5/5(100%)
Above median
2/5(40%)
Below median
3/5(60%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.33%P25: -0.69%P50: 1.30%P75: 3.62%P95: 10.96%
Computed at: 06/04/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 35.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.