Insights / us
VLO
Valero Energy CorporationUS04/19/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.91%
P05–P95 span
10.92%
Neighbors
36
Sharpness
0.78
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+12.07%
Outer 90%
5/10(50%)
Middle 50%
0/10(0%)
Above median
10/10(100%)
Below median
0/10(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.12%P25: 0.06%P50: 1.91%P75: 4.08%P95: 7.80%
Computed at: 04/20/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 35.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.