Insights / us
VLO
Valero Energy CorporationUS04/06/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.60%
P05–P95 span
19.53%
Neighbors
19
Sharpness
0.61
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-5.09%
Outer 90%
8/10(80%)
Middle 50%
6/10(60%)
Above median
3/10(30%)
Below median
7/10(70%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -15.10%P25: -5.41%P50: -1.60%P75: 0.84%P95: 4.43%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:47 AM · ESS 18.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.