Insights / us
UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc.US06/07/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.65%
P05–P95 span
10.28%
Neighbors
34
Sharpness
0.79
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
3 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+3
-0.56%
Outer 90%
2/3(67%)
Middle 50%
1/3(33%)
Above median
0/3(0%)
Below median
3/3(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.24%P25: -1.02%P50: 0.65%P75: 3.13%P95: 6.04%
Computed at: 06/08/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 33.1 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.