Insights / us
UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc.US04/09/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.94%
P05–P95 span
10.55%
Neighbors
38
Sharpness
0.79
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+4.76%
Outer 90%
2/10(20%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -8.70%P25: -4.53%P50: -1.94%P75: -0.28%P95: 1.85%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:47 AM · ESS 37.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.