Insights / us
UNP
Union Pacific CorporationUS06/02/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.02%
P05–P95 span
12.80%
Neighbors
27
Sharpness
0.74
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
6 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+6
+1.64%
Outer 90%
5/6(83%)
Middle 50%
3/6(50%)
Above median
6/6(100%)
Below median
0/6(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.32%P25: -1.57%P50: -0.02%P75: 2.01%P95: 7.48%
Computed at: 06/03/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 26.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.