Insights / us
UNP
Union Pacific CorporationUS05/31/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.24%
P05–P95 span
11.33%
Neighbors
23
Sharpness
0.77
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
8 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+8
+3.11%
Outer 90%
8/8(100%)
Middle 50%
5/8(63%)
Above median
8/8(100%)
Below median
0/8(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.25%P25: -0.53%P50: 1.24%P75: 3.15%P95: 8.07%
Computed at: 06/01/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 22.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.