Insights / us
UNP
Union Pacific CorporationUS05/18/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.91%
P05–P95 span
18.18%
Neighbors
31
Sharpness
0.64
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-3.66%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
0/10(0%)
Below median
10/10(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.85%P25: -0.44%P50: 1.91%P75: 4.43%P95: 11.33%
Computed at: 05/19/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 30.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.