Insights / us
UNP
Union Pacific CorporationUS04/22/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.33%
P05–P95 span
14.74%
Neighbors
30
Sharpness
0.71
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+0.81%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
6/10(60%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.39%P25: -1.56%P50: 0.33%P75: 2.14%P95: 9.34%
Computed at: 04/23/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 29.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.