Insights / us
UNP
Union Pacific CorporationUS04/12/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.63%
P05–P95 span
14.73%
Neighbors
33
Sharpness
0.71
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+7.14%
Outer 90%
7/10(70%)
Middle 50%
6/10(60%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -12.04%P25: -4.24%P50: -1.63%P75: 0.20%P95: 2.69%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:46 AM · ESS 32.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.