Insights / us
ULTA
Ulta Beauty, Inc.US05/19/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.06%
P05–P95 span
9.96%
Neighbors
24
Sharpness
0.80
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-4.01%
Outer 90%
5/10(50%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.63%P25: -2.46%P50: -0.06%P75: 1.48%P95: 5.33%
Computed at: 05/20/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 23.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.