Insights / us
ULTA
Ulta Beauty, Inc.US05/12/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.30%
P05–P95 span
24.58%
Neighbors
17
Sharpness
0.51
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+4.20%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
6/10(60%)
Above median
3/10(30%)
Below median
7/10(70%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -12.43%P25: -1.98%P50: 1.30%P75: 3.38%P95: 12.15%
Computed at: 05/13/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 16.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.