Insights / us
ULTA
Ulta Beauty, Inc.US04/16/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.03%
P05–P95 span
13.62%
Neighbors
30
Sharpness
0.73
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-2.20%
Outer 90%
8/10(80%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
5/10(50%)
Below median
5/10(50%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -8.07%P25: -0.57%P50: 1.03%P75: 2.82%P95: 5.55%
Computed at: 04/17/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 29.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.