Insights / us
TTD
The Trade Desk, Inc.US05/19/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.59%
P05–P95 span
15.29%
Neighbors
37
Sharpness
0.69
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+1.28%
Outer 90%
7/10(70%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.12%P25: -0.86%P50: 0.59%P75: 2.92%P95: 11.17%
Computed at: 05/20/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 36.3 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.