Insights / us
TTD
The Trade Desk, Inc.US04/05/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-2.12%
P05–P95 span
10.79%
Neighbors
39
Sharpness
0.78
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+9.87%
Outer 90%
4/10(40%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
4/10(40%)
Below median
6/10(60%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.69%P25: -3.99%P50: -2.12%P75: -0.21%P95: 3.10%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 03:49 AM · ESS 38.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.