Insights / us
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.US05/20/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-4.21%
P05–P95 span
9.61%
Neighbors
40
Sharpness
0.81
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-7.38%
Outer 90%
4/10(40%)
Middle 50%
0/10(0%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -9.16%P25: -6.19%P50: -4.21%P75: -2.32%P95: 0.45%
Computed at: 05/21/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 38.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.