Insights / us
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.US05/03/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.61%
P05–P95 span
9.52%
Neighbors
32
Sharpness
0.81
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+5.06%
Outer 90%
3/10(30%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.85%P25: -1.20%P50: 0.61%P75: 2.20%P95: 4.67%
Computed at: 05/04/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 31.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.