Insights / us
TRV
The Travelers Companies, Inc.US06/08/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.43%
P05–P95 span
12.14%
Neighbors
24
Sharpness
0.76
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
2 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+2
+2.21%
Outer 90%
2/2(100%)
Middle 50%
0/2(0%)
Above median
2/2(100%)
Below median
0/2(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.88%P25: -2.85%P50: -0.43%P75: 1.78%P95: 5.26%
Computed at: 06/09/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 23.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.