Insights / us
TRV
The Travelers Companies, Inc.US06/02/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.67%
P05–P95 span
16.40%
Neighbors
26
Sharpness
0.67
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
6 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+6
+4.64%
Outer 90%
6/6(100%)
Middle 50%
3/6(50%)
Above median
5/6(83%)
Below median
1/6(17%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.77%P25: -1.35%P50: 0.67%P75: 3.67%P95: 10.62%
Computed at: 06/03/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 24.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.