Insights / us
TRV
The Travelers Companies, Inc.US05/25/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.16%
P05–P95 span
9.93%
Neighbors
24
Sharpness
0.80
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-2.37%
Outer 90%
7/10(70%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
0/10(0%)
Below median
10/10(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.84%P25: -1.44%P50: -0.16%P75: 1.49%P95: 4.09%
Computed at: 05/26/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 23.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.