TRV

The Travelers Companies, Inc.US05/18/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

Median move

+0.73%

P05–P95 span

13.95%

Neighbors

Sharpness

0.72

Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)

10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices

Realized @ D+10

-5.19%

Outer 90%

8/10(80%)

Middle 50%

4/10(40%)

Above median

2/10(20%)

Below median

8/10(80%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -5.04%P25: -1.53%P50: 0.73%P75: 3.71%P95: 8.91%

Computed at: 05/19/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 25.9 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.