Insights / us
TRV
The Travelers Companies, Inc.US05/05/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.31%
P05–P95 span
12.36%
Neighbors
30
Sharpness
0.75
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+1.49%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
0/10(0%)
Below median
10/10(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.74%P25: -0.78%P50: 1.31%P75: 3.40%P95: 7.62%
Computed at: 05/06/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 28.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.