Insights / us
TRV
The Travelers Companies, Inc.US04/09/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-2.52%
P05–P95 span
10.04%
Neighbors
40
Sharpness
0.80
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+0.23%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
10/10(100%)
Below median
0/10(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -8.36%P25: -4.30%P50: -2.52%P75: -0.98%P95: 1.68%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:47 AM · ESS 39.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.