Insights / us
TPL
Texas Pacific Land CorporationUS05/21/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.05%
P05–P95 span
18.11%
Neighbors
26
Sharpness
0.64
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+0.61%
Outer 90%
7/10(70%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
7/10(70%)
Below median
3/10(30%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -14.26%P25: -3.36%P50: -1.05%P75: 0.40%P95: 3.85%
Computed at: 05/22/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 25.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.