Insights / us
TPL
Texas Pacific Land CorporationUS04/08/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-2.61%
P05–P95 span
7.10%
Neighbors
8
Sharpness
0.86
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-1.75%
Outer 90%
7/10(70%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
5/10(50%)
Below median
5/10(50%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.03%P25: -4.62%P50: -2.61%P75: -1.15%P95: 0.07%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:47 AM · ESS 8.0 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.