Insights / us
TGT
Target CorporationUS05/28/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.30%
P05–P95 span
16.15%
Neighbors
28
Sharpness
0.68
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
9 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+9
+4.10%
Outer 90%
7/9(78%)
Middle 50%
3/9(33%)
Above median
2/9(22%)
Below median
7/9(78%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -9.81%P25: -1.39%P50: 0.30%P75: 2.03%P95: 6.34%
Computed at: 05/29/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 27.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.