Insights / us
TGT
Target CorporationUS04/13/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.32%
P05–P95 span
13.24%
Neighbors
20
Sharpness
0.74
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+7.93%
Outer 90%
0/10(0%)
Middle 50%
0/10(0%)
Above median
10/10(100%)
Below median
0/10(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.86%P25: -2.22%P50: 0.32%P75: 2.81%P95: 6.39%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:46 AM · ESS 19.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.