Insights / us
TDG
TransDigm Group IncorporatedUS04/23/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.88%
P05–P95 span
16.04%
Neighbors
32
Sharpness
0.68
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+5.03%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
5/10(50%)
Above median
4/10(40%)
Below median
6/10(60%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.43%P25: 0.17%P50: 1.88%P75: 4.71%P95: 10.61%
Computed at: 04/24/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 30.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.